Across liberal-leaning news sources, predictions of a possible insurgence of democratic turnout at the polls has taken ahold of political strategists and trend predictors. The “blue wave”, as it has been deemed, has been a forefront topic of debate in light of the upcoming midterm elections, as many predict the past two years under the Trump presidency will incentivize democratic voters to cast their ballots this November. There is clear reasoning as to why this may occur. There is a more diverse electorate than ever before in US history, and as deeply liberal-leaning youth are coming to a voting age, it is predicted that they will have the highest voter turnout in three decades, according to a study published by Harvard. Trump was elected in part due to low democratic turnout, and many are seeking to redeem this. But will the blue wave really occur?

This is not the first time a blue wave has been predicted, or any major switch of Congress majority for that matter. The only times that these predictions have rung true since 1950 has been for one factor: economics. It has always been in times of poor or tumultuous economics that radical change to the control of Congress has occurred. Take the 2010 midterms, encased in notoriety for the massive switch from Democratic to Republican control of the senate. This was due to many moving pieces—poor democratic turnout, for one—but the one that is mostly accredited to the massive “Red Wave” was the Great Recession, which was in full force when the midterms occurred. Economics has always been one of the largest persuaders for votes, and at this current time, the country is economically sound. While it is difficult to base current political trends off of those of the past, especially considering how drastically the political landscape has changed since the election of Trump, there is a formidable amount of past voting records that speak against this blue wave, which is something very difficult to ignore.

A reminder of the 2016 election. Donald Trump’s initial announcement that he was running for office was received with a pitiful disregard, and everyone remained in a belief he would not make it past the first few months. Despite nearly every credible democratic news source reporting this, he was elected the GOP candidate for presidency. In the weeks leading up to November 9^th, most every major poll indicated Hillary Clinton was the clear top runner, and yet Donald Trump was elected. Polls and projections are just indicators of a likely turnout and are nowhere certain. It is in believing that they equate to a guaranteed result that leads to their flop, and there is a deep history of this, particularly in the democratic party.

I’m not writing this editorial to tell you which side to vote for. I’m writing this editorial solely under the hope that it will inspire you to vote. I do not believe the blue wave will come, especially at such a magnitude that it will completely alter the political landscape of Congress. It is very easy to slip into a sense of false security that this is guaranteed. It is this security that will be the dying factor for the wave, and for any other political movement. To democrats who are eligible to vote: prove me wrong. Make the blue wave the reality through your ballots. It’s these ballots that will contradict my predictions. Always stay active, stay motivated, and above all, vote.