While many students assume college after high school is the only way to gain success and a stable job, current research suggests that there is now an increased interest in trade schools as the result of AI, and the fear that many corporate jobs that mostly require a 4-year bachelor’s degree will be replaced. Trade school, also known as vocational training, is one of the most popular post-high alternative routes focused on preparing students to work in hands-on careers.
According to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, 17.6% is the percentage of the increased enrollment at U.S. trade schools and vocational programs in 2024. This increased enrollment at trade schools means fewer students are going on the traditional college route, and this phenomenon is largely due to price. When adjusted for inflation, on average costs of college attendance in the past twenty years have “increased about 32%” according to research done by U.S. News & World Report.
When students are paying exorbitant prices and falling into exploitative student loans and then entering a workforce that has less entry level positions— a shift is bound to happen. That shift is a change in perspective. Trade school has never been glamourous, and in the past it was largely disregarded as “poor man’s work,” but social media and the increased interest from younger members of the workforce have changed this. “Today, trade schools… are recognized as essential gateways to rewarding, in-demand careers… while previous generations pushed for a four-year university education, today people recognize that other viable career paths don’t come with the burden of student debt,” says Cliff Whittingstall, a managing Senior Principal at architecture and engineering firm.
AI is also something that can’t be ignored. In a personal interview with Nayomi Abraha, a freshman at Seattle University, she mentioned how she was well aware of the possible threats of AI as she enters an increasingly competitive and limited job market. “I see why people are shifting careers to blue collar work due to their degrees becoming arbitrary because of AI, and that is why I think it is so important to research scholarships and pursue a line of work that can’t be replaced.”
Another factor in the increased popularity of trade schools is the dilemma all young adults are facing, the job market crisis fueled by the current “K-shaped economy.” In economic terms, this means GDP is increasing, so inflation is also increasing, but only the rich are receiving the benefits of a booming economy, while everyone else is holding the burden of higher costs.
A consequence of this “K-shaped economy,” the college education to corporate America pipeline is being less and less valuable for Gen-Z, while the increased interest in blue collar careers comes from the fact those jobs are shown to provide the stability, employment, financial freedom, and higher starting salaries that traditional college graduates were once promised. Furthermore, it is no secret that more people receive a college education compared to decades past, and now the value of a bachelor’s degree has gone down, while tuition has increased and job availability is on the decline shown in data by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, that proves that “the post pandemic labor market shows signs of diminished prospects for young college graduates… [and they] are experiencing higher-than-average unemployment rates.”
But Blue-collar industries have the opposite problem—there aren’t enough plumbers, technicians, welders, so now it is much easier to get a job, have higher wages, and move out of frictional unemployment with a trade school education. For students like Naomi Abraha, or our peers that are in college or just entering the workforce, everyone is figuring out ways to deal with rising college tuition costs and the student loan debts that come with a bachelor’s in the current cost of living crisis.
“Traditional college isn’t for everyone, and that’s okay, and honestly with the way the economy is looking, it is also a smart path to go on,” Naomi Abraha said. Real-life stories from young trade workers across the country advocate for the importance of trades and what they do for society and are approaching this booming interest in trade schools and blue-collar industries with open arms. As John Seaman, the Gen-Z owner of JC Property Professionals, said “I’m excited about AI in construction because it… will never replace the skilled, hands-on work we do. Until a robot can install a roof or lay stormwater pipe, our jobs are secure.”
